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Keeping the lid on Iran's centrifuges |
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Wednesday, 23 May 2007 |
International Herald Tribune - For a UN-baiting, diplomacy-bashing crowd, the Bush administration has shown unexpected patience in trying to persuade the Security Council to punish Iran for its nuclear misbehavior. And for a foot-dragging, conflict-averse crowd, the Security Council has moved with alacrity in imposing two sets of sanctions on Iran just since December.
Unfortunately, Iran is still playing to type.
Nine months after the Council ordered Tehran to suspend enriching uranium, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency say Iran's scientists are close to mastering the process that would allow them to produce fuel for a nuclear weapon.
Some diplomats have begun arguing that now that the "point of no return" has passed, the Security Council should drop its insistence that Iran halt all enrichment - and the sanctions attached to that demand - and focus on trying to contain the size of the enrichment program and ensuring that inspectors can monitor the effort. That may well be where this will all end up. But it is far too soon to make that sort of concession, especially since Iran has a proven record of pocketing concessions and pushing its program ahead.
Given the urgency and ambition of Iran's nuclear program, what is needed is a more urgent and ambitious international response. Let us be clear, this is not a call for more White House saber rattling and certainly not for military planning. There is no military solution.
But unless Iran's leaders are offered far more attractive rewards - yes, we're talking about a grand bargain - and threatened with far more painful punishments - yes, that could mean another spike in world oil prices - there is no chance of changing their behavior.
That means that President George W. Bush is going to have to put a lot more on the table, including a clear offer of full diplomatic relations and security guarantees should Iran agree to verifiably contain its nuclear ambitions. And it also means that the Europeans, Russians and Chinese are going to have to take a lot more off the table, cutting back diplomatic and trade relations if Tehran continues to push its nuclear program ahead.
It is hard to decide which is making Tehran more cocky these days - its scientists' technical successes or America's disastrous failure in Iraq. But its recent talk of rationing gasoline - now delayed - shows a clear and present vulnerability.
Until now, both Bush and his diplomatic partners have managed to sidestep any really tough choices when it comes to Iran's nuclear program. The lesson of the new atomic energy agency report is that the time for sidestepping has run out. What is needed is a frank and public discussion about the cost of Iran getting a nuclear weapon and what the world is willing to give and take away to try to prevent that. |
