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Now, two nuclear deadlines |
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Tuesday, 10 April 2007 |
Chicago Tribune - Editorial - For years now, the Iranians have ignored deadlines to stop their nuclear program. They've been masterful at playing for time, stringing along the Europeans, the Russians and the United Nations Security Council with negotiations that went nowhere, threats of retaliation about the country's "right" to nuclear energy. The most recent example of Iranian misdirection: the British hostage crisis.
It's been a bravura performance. And apparently it is paying off. On Monday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad crowed that Iran has begun enriching uranium on an industrial scale.
If true, that's a milestone for Iran -- and another blazing-red warning flag for the so-far ineffectual UN Security Council.
You might figure a country that faces yet another UN-imposed deadline -- and, possibly, more sanctions -- would be a bit more circumspect about trumpeting its nuclear prowess to the world. But, hey, why change a winning formula? Iran's strategy is to establish itself as a de facto nuclear power, similar to North Korea. Its program is irreversible, Tehran says.
There are two deadlines in play here. First, there's the most recent deadline that the Security Council has imposed on Iran, set to expire next month. The second deadline faces not Iran, but the U.S. and other countries that have vowed to defuse Iran's program. That deadline expires the day Iran announces that it possesses enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb, or several. That deadline is also approaching rapidly, although no one in the West can say exactly when it will be. Despite some continuing technical difficulties, Iran is "making steady progress" in enriching uranium, a path to building a bomb, according to analysts at the Institute for Science and International Security.
Intelligence officials have estimated that Iran won't have the wherewithal to build a bomb for five to 10 years.
But there's a wide margin for error: Nuclear experts say that 3,000 centrifuges -- which Iran claims it will have operating soon -- would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within nine months or so.
It's a guessing game because Iran is stonewalling the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA would like to know about the technical problems the Iranians are encountering and how close they are to solving them. Western analysts would like to know if the Iranians can manufacture all the parts for their centrifuges themselves or still require foreign suppliers. Intelligence officials would like to know how reliable the centrifuges are and how long they can operate continuously. The IAEA would like to have cameras monitoring the Natanz facility 24/7.
Of course, Iran isn't cooperating. The longer Tehran can keep the world guessing, the longer it can stall for time by ranting about the consequences of confrontation, the longer it can divert attention by meddling in Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and elsewhere, the better its chances of joining the nuclear club.
Deadlines mean nothing to Tehran, except as pesky annoyances to be overcome.
But they should mean something to the rest of the world.
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